YAS MARINA · NOVEMBER 2010 · THIRTY LAPS BEHIND A RENAULT
2010 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
THE STORY
He was the fastest driver on the circuit. The aerodynamics simply wouldn't let him through.
Gary — 33 · Three Fantasy F1 leagues
The inflection point was lap 15. At lap 15, Alonso had a 1.8-second-per-lap pace advantage over Petrov. My model gave him a 94% championship probability if he passed Petrov in the next five laps. Each lap he failed to pass reduced his title probability by approximately 1.7 percentage points. By lap 35 it was functionally over. I'd had Alonso at 3-to-1 ante-post. I did not have a good November.
The irony is that Alonso didn't lose the championship to Vettel — he lost it to Petrov, in a Renault, which was technically his own former team's engine. The Renault power unit had won Fernando his first championship in 2005 and 2006. In 2010 it stopped him winning his third. Sports has a genuinely dark sense of humour and I respect that about it.
Kat — 30 · Technical journalist
Yas Marina in 2010 was the most overtaking-hostile circuit on the calendar, for a specific technical reason. The stadium section's low-speed corners meant exit traction was everything, and the Renault R30 was exceptionally well-balanced at low speed. The dirty air from Petrov's car was disrupting Alonso's front wing downforce before he even reached the braking zone — he was already compromised before the overtake attempt began.
DRS hadn't been introduced yet. If the 2010 championship had been run one year later, Alonso almost certainly passes Petrov in the DRS zone and takes the title. The 2010 Abu Dhabi race is the strongest argument for DRS that has ever been made — and it was made one year before DRS existed. Which is either tragic timing or perfect timing, depending on how you feel about Fernando Alonso.
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