HOCKENHEIM · JULY 2019 · FERRARI LEADS, THEN DOESN'T
2019 German Grand Prix
THE STORY
Vettel was leading. It started raining. Forty-seven seconds later, Verstappen was winning.
Gary — 33 · Three Fantasy F1 leagues
Vettel's championship race probability was 78% at the point the rain started. Forty-seven seconds later it was zero. The swing in Max Verstappen's probability from lap 28 to lap 30 was 87 percentage points — from 4% to 91%. I've never seen a two-lap window produce that scale of swing. I've checked. I keep checking.
Robert Kubica scored a point. Robert Kubica, in a Williams, which was statistically the slowest car on the grid in 2019, scored a point at Hockenheim. The probability of Kubica scoring a championship point in 2019 was, before this race, approximately 1.1%. My models retired briefly after this race. They needed time to process.
Kat — 30 · Technical journalist
The Ferrari SF90's rear aerodynamic philosophy in 2019 was genuinely problematic in mixed conditions. The high-rake setup that gave them exceptional downforce in the dry made the rear end difficult to manage when grip levels dropped suddenly. What Vettel experienced at turn one wasn't unusual for that car in those conditions — it was the predictable consequence of a setup that hadn't been optimised for rain.
The safety car and virtual safety car periods created a strategic maze that Verstappen's team navigated brilliantly. Starting 9th, they committed to a two-stop that put him on fresh mediums at exactly the right moment. Verstappen didn't win because of luck — he won because Red Bull made six correct decisions in a row under pressure while everyone else was making one wrong one.
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